Snow-covered contemporary home exterior, representing the Sioux Falls winter housing market

Photo: Max Vakhtbovych / Pexels

The Sioux Falls housing market has cooled heading into winter 2026 — sales are down, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they've had in years. For sellers, it still leans your way on paper, but pricing and presentation matter more than they did at the peak. Whether you should buy or sell right now comes down to your situation, and the Jeff Merrill Team is happy to walk you through it.

Quick Answer: As of the October 2026 report from the Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire, the Sioux Falls median sale price was $310,000, homes averaged 83 days on market, and months of supply sat at 4.0. Sales have slowed into the winter, which gives buyers negotiating leverage and means sellers need to price sharp. With 30-year mortgage rates around 7.18%, both buyers and sellers can still win — it depends on your goals and timeline.

The Sioux Falls market right now

Here are the latest numbers for Sioux Falls, from the Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire's October 2026 report:

  • Median sale price: $310,000, down 4.6% year over year — partly a seasonal shift, as fewer and often lower-priced homes change hands in late fall.
  • Closed sales: 203, down about 26% from a year earlier.
  • New listings: 365, down 17% — fewer sellers are listing in the off-season.
  • Months of supply: 4.0 months, still below the six months that marks a balanced market.
  • Average days on market: 83 days.
  • Percent of list price received: 96.8%.

On the financing side, Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed at 7.18% and the 15-year fixed at 6.57% as of November 5, 2026.

The short version: the market is slower and a bit softer than it was this summer, but with only four months of supply it hasn't flipped into a true buyer's market. It's a more balanced, negotiable market — which is actually good news for people on both sides of a deal.

Should you buy this winter?

For buyers, this is one of the better windows we've seen in a while. Here's why:

  • Less competition. Winter buyers are fewer, so you're less likely to land in a bidding war than you were last spring.
  • More negotiating room. Homes are averaging 83 days on market and selling at 96.8% of list, so there's room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.
  • Motivated sellers. Anyone listed in the winter usually needs to sell, which works in your favor.
  • More new-construction options. Builders have added inventory, giving you choices and leverage you wouldn't have had at the peak.

Rates near 7.18% still shape your monthly payment, so get pre-approved and run your real numbers before you shop. When you're ready, start your search right here on siouxfallsgreathomes.com — it's wired to the local MLS, so you'll see accurate Sioux Falls listings and can set up instant alerts.

Should you sell this winter?

Selling in winter can absolutely work — but the approach is different than it was a year ago.

  • The buyers who are out there are serious. Fewer showings, but the people touring your home in December are ready to move, not just browsing.
  • Price it right from day one. With homes taking 83 days to sell and buyers getting choosier, an overpriced listing sits. Sharp, data-backed pricing is what moves a home now.
  • Presentation matters more. Clean, well-staged, well-photographed homes stand out when buyers are comparing a smaller pool of listings.
  • Less competition from other sellers. With new listings down 17%, your home has fewer rivals for the serious buyers who are shopping.

The right asking price depends on your exact home, condition, and timing — that's where a local market analysis comes in, and it's something the Jeff Merrill Team does before we ever list.

So — buy or sell?

There's no one-size-fits-all answer. If you're buying, the leverage has shifted toward you, and winter is a smart time to make a move. If you're selling, the market still supports you — as long as you price and present the home right. Many of our clients are doing both at once, and the key is lining up the timing so you're not caught between two homes.

The best next step is a quick conversation about your specific situation. The Jeff Merrill Team works these neighborhoods every day and can tell you exactly what your home is worth, or what your budget really buys, with no pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to buy a house in Sioux Falls?
For many buyers, yes. The market has cooled into winter, with homes averaging 83 days on market and selling at 96.8% of list price, which gives you more negotiating room and less competition than last spring. With rates around 7.18%, run your numbers first, but the leverage has shifted toward buyers.

Is it a good time to sell a house in Sioux Falls?
It can be. Months of supply sits at 4.0, still below a balanced market, and new listings are down 17%, so you face less competition. The catch is that buyers are choosier, so pricing sharply and presenting the home well are what get it sold this winter.

Are home prices dropping in Sioux Falls?
The October 2026 median was $310,000, down 4.6% from a year earlier, but much of that is seasonal — fewer and often lower-priced homes sell in late fall. It's a softening, more negotiable market, not a crash; months of supply is still only 4.0.

What are mortgage rates in Sioux Falls right now?
As of November 5, 2026, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed at 7.18% and the 15-year fixed at 6.57%. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type, so check with a local lender.

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